2 bettors win big on massive long shot to be 1st American pope

Betting markets have correctly called 24 of the past 28 U.S. presidential elections. But they’re 0-for-2 in the past two papal elections.

Robert Prevost was a 100-1 long shot at UK sportsbooks last week to be the first American pope and successor to the late Pope Francis, who was 50-1 before his selection in 2013.

Prevost, who was born in Chicago and graduated from Villanova, stunned the betting industry Thursday when he won the papal election and took the name Pope Leo XIV.

“Robert Prevost’s emergence came as a major surprise to the betting industry, having attracted virtually no attention in the market,” said Sam Eaton, UK country manager for Oddschecker, the UK’s biggest betting aggregator. “In fact, only 1 percent of all bets on the next pope were placed on Prevost. Just last week, he was priced at 100-1, briefly shortening to 66-1, but he still remained a long shot.

“While a surprise choice wasn’t out of the question — Jorge Mario Bergoglio was 50-1 before his selection — few expected it to be Prevost, especially with so many other contenders dominating the spotlight.”

Betting on the pope isn’t permitted at U.S. sportsbooks. But two bettors at New York City-based prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket won big when Prevost was elected in the conclave inside the Sistine Chapel.

A Kalshi bettor turned a $526 wager into $52,641 on Prevost at 100-1 odds, according to a post on X (@Kalshi).

A Polymarket bettor turned a $1,059.51 wager into $62,355.80 on Prevost at 59-1 odds, according to a post on X (@Polymarket).

Kalshi and Polymarket are not traditional sportsbooks. They’re prediction markets where users can trade on the outcomes of various events.

Italian cardinal Pietro Parolin and Filipino cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle were the clear favorites to be the next pope since Pope Francis died April 21 at age 88.

In fact, when white smoke emerged from the Sistine Chapel chimney to signify that a new pope was selected, Polymarket declared it a three-man race, giving Parolin a 62 percent chance, Tagle a 25 percent chance and Italian cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa an 8 percent chance.

“The new Pope will be announced any moment now,” it said in a post on X. “It’s between 2 Italians and a Filipino: Pietro Parolin, Luis Tagle and Pierbattista Pizzaballa.”

Prevost, who was given a less than 2 percent chance at Kalshi and Polymarket, also was a big long shot at offshore sportsbook BetOnline.

Prevost did not appear on the BetOnline betting board for the next pope when it was first posted in 2022. He was only added this month to the long list of candidates and shot up from 16-1 on Tuesday to 25-1 on Wednesday and to 40-1 on Thursday before he was elected.

“Bets were steadily coming in on a handful of papal candidates this week, but none of them were Prevost, so we kept bumping his odds,” BetOnline.ag political oddsmaker Paul Krishnamurty said. “Every pope market we had was a winner for the book, so it’s too bad this only happens every decade or so.”

The papal name, Leo, had the fourth-lowest odds on the board, at 8-1, behind Francis, Pius and John.

Prevost was elected pope after four rounds of voting. Bettors at BetOnline lost on the over-under prop for rounds of voting as they backed over 4½.

Bettors also lost on the prop of the age of the next pope. Over 70 years old was a popular pick, but the under cashed at +150, as Prevost is 69.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at [email protected]. Follow @tdewey33 on X.